The Tasmanian government has announced its intention to completely power the island with renewable energy sources by 2020, despite the Tony Abbott-led Australian government’s plans to the contrary. This is an ambitious goal, but not completely outlandish. By 2008, Tasmania reduced its emissions by 19.9% below 1990 levels.6 However, emissions have been trending upward since 2002, with no clear signs of slowing down. On top of that, on closer inspection it appears that much of the reduction between 1990 and 2002 was due to a significant reduction in logging and changes in international emission accounting methodology.1,3,6
This is troubling. The reductions in logging are necessary and admirable - and Tasmania must continue to defend its world heritage sites against the lobbying of the logging industry and its political proponents. Nevertheless, there does not seem to be much potential for further reduction in logging activity, and there are no signs of reduction in other areas of emission - transportation, manufacturing, power production, etc. A great portion of the reduction Tasmania is reporting is really a phantom reduction - it is no longer required to account for the emissions produced by the mainland power generators that supply a good portion of Tasmania’s electricity.
In short, there is no reasonable sense that Tasmania’s plan is realistic or that Tasmania is on the path to achieve it. The measures laid out in the environmental departments report are “aspirational”, or put more bluntly, do not have any teeth. Without any mechanism to economically or legally encourage or force reductions in emissions, Tasmania’s emission profile is bound to grow. The sentiments are noble and and the intention right, but unless Tasmania puts more action to its rhetoric its emissions will only continue to increase.
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